Safety Of The Thermal Protection System Of The Space Shuttle Orbiter Quantitative Analysis And Organizational Factors.pdf

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SAFETY OF THE THERMAL PROTECTION SYSTEM
OF THE SPACE SHU'i'rLE ORBr:IER:
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QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS AND
ORGANI:7ATIONAL
FACTORS
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Phase 1
RISK-BASED PRIORITY
SCALE
AN D PR
ELIMINARY
OBSERVATIONS
•
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by
M.
Elisabeth
Pate-Cornell
"
/
,
Department of
Industrial Engineering _nd
Engineering Management
Stanford University
and
Paul s. Fischbeck
..
"
Departmentof
Engineering
and Public
Po
icy
and
Department
of Decision Sciences
Carnegie.Mellon
University
REPORT TO
THE
NATIONAL AERONAUTICS
AND
SPACE ADMINISTRATION
Cooperative
Research Agreement No. NCC 10-0001
between Stanlord University and NASA-(Kennedy Space Center)
December, 1990
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'SAFETY OF THE THERMAL PROTECTION SYSTEM
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OF THE SPACE SHUTTLE ORBITER:
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QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS AND,ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS
'
Phase
1"-'
,
i
t
RISK-BASED
PRIORITY
SCALE
AND PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS
M. El[sabeth Pat_-Cornell"
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,
Department of Inclustdal
Engineen.'ng,andEngfneering
Management
Stanford'University
and
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Paul S,.Fischbeck'*
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Department of Engineering .and Public
Policy
and Department of Decision Sciences'
'Carnegie-Mellon University
REPORTTO
-
THE NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION
,'
Cooperative
Research Agreement
No. NCC 10-0001
'
between Stanford University and
NASA
(Kennedy Space Center)
" Associate
Professor
"" Assistant Professor, Commander USNR. Formerly: Graduate Research Assistant,
[_iepartment of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management,
Stanfotd .Uhiversity.
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TABLE
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Page
6
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SIJM'MARY
Section
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1:
1.1
' 1.2
1.3
INTRODUCTION
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7
9
13
1'4
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Objectives of the overall project
Scope of
the work tn
Phase 1
Gathering
o_igformation
and technicat points of
contact
Section
2:
2.1
2.2
::
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
System description
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16
,
_
16
21
21
22
.24
26
26
37
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Life
cycle
and maintenance
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operations
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2.2.1
2.2.2
22.3
2.3
Tile manufacturing
and inst_Tlation
,
Flight
profile loading
Tile maintenance procedures
Failure history:
.incident
recording and data bases
2.3.1
2.3.2
.
,
FaiJure history and
iocident
recordiDg
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Data bases
S_:clion 3:
3.f
3.2
DESCRIPTION
OF
THE PRA MODEL _=ORTHE TILES
Susceptibility
and
vutnerab!/[ty
39
39
43
44
47
49
Definition of min-zones
3.2.1
3.2.2
3.2.3
Debris classification
Burn-thr0ugh
classification
Secondary tile Ioss
cass fcation
Funct!0nal criticality classification
.
•
3.2.4
3.2.5
51
51
57
58
61
Deb0nding due to factors other
than
debris impact
3.3
3.4
3.5
PRA model:
definition
of variables
Initiating
event:
initial
debris impact on
one
tile
only (D=I)
Initiating event:
initial
debris impact on several tiles (D=d)
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3.6
3.7
Initiatir_gevent:
debon_ing,due iq _actorsother
than
debris
Additional information
and data
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Page
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64
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Section 4:
Section 5:
5.1
5.2
ILLUSTRATIONOF THE MODEL.,
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72
80
80
82
82
83
84
r
1 t
EFFECTS
OF
ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS
ON TPS
BELIABiLITY: M_IN PRELIMINARYONSERVATIONS
'
Errors'and
risks
'
Preliminary
observations
5.2.1
5.2.2
5.2.3
Time
pressures
Liability concerns and
corlflicts
among
contractors
Turnoveramong t}le tec'hnicians and i0w
status
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'1
of tile work
Need for more randomtesting
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5.2.4
5.2.5
85
86
Contributionof
the
management
of the ET
and
the
SRBs to
TPSreliability
Bection
6:
,Section
7:
,:.ectton
8:
8.1
CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
APPENDICES
Appendix 1:
OrganizationalExtension of PRA Models
And
NASA Application(M. E. Patd-C0rnetl, PSA'89)
87
89
"_.
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A-1
A-11
8.2
Appendix
2:
Data bases tor
tile performance
2
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FIGURES
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-Page
1.7
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Fi:._ure 1
i
Fi::jure
2:
'
F[_;ure 3:
Fi!;ure
4:
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J
The Space Shuttle O.rbiter
,
,for
The thermal
protection
system (TPS)_
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OV 103 (Discovery) add OV 104 (Atlantis) ..
The black tiles (all vehicles)
The tile system
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.20
21
:31
33
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Fi!;!ure 5:
Fi!;]ure
6:
Histogram of tile damage due
to
debMs
Accumulated major debris hits (lower
surface).
for
flights
STS-6 through 'STS-32R
-=.
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,
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Fi..3ure7:
•
Fi!;rure 8:
The tile..system and
,
bond problems
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•
Event diag'ram: fairure
of
the TPS leading
to LOV
34
.
41
Fi!;ur_ 9:
Figure
10:
Fi_.;ure11
:
Figure
12:
Figure 13: •
Fqure 14:
Fi!;ure 15:
Event
tree
of LOV due to TPS failure
L
42
45
48
50
52
53
54
Partition of the orbiter's
surface
into three types
of debris zones (index: h)
Partition of the orbiter's surface into
three
types
of
burn-through
zones
(index: k)
Partition of the orbiter's
surface
into two types
of secondary tile loss zones (index: I)
Components and
systems
location
Hydraulic system
components
and line locations
Partition of the orbiters surface into three types
of zones of functional criticality (index: j)
Fit_ure 16:
Fi_;ure 17:
Fi!=_ure18:
Fi!_"lure19:
Fi.:lure
20:
Pour major
debond
problem types
Tile workmanship errors
Ascent debris trajectory simulation (side view)
Ascent debris trajectory simulation (plan view)
Thermal measurements of the orbiter's surface
(bottom view)
56
65
67
68
69

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